24 February 2016

Emerging-country emergency for Made in Italy exports

andrea.dossena@prometeia.com
The many crises affecting the emerging countries are hitting Italian
exports badly, both because of excessive specialisation in capital goods (the most
penalised demand component in this phase) and a Made in Italy supply that is
qualitatively at odds with the current composition of consumption.[1]

18 February 2016

Prometeia index for industrial commodities: Further decline in January

stefano.sparacca@prometeia.com
The fall in Brent prices drives down supply costs for the chemical industry. Price transmission remains constrained. Prometeia index declines by 2% on December.

12 February 2016

Banking crises and bail-ins: What will change for Italian banks?

lea.zicchino@prometeia.com; massimiliano.coluccia@prometeia.com: elisa.quinto@prometeia.com
What are the risks facing the creditors of Italian banks? Since the resolution of the four Italian banks under special administration, which led to losses for bondholders, interest in the topic of bail-ins has risen greatly. The results of Prometeia’s analysis are reassuring, even when very extreme scenarios involving huge losses for the main banking groups are simulated.[1]

29 January 2016

Budget policy in 2016: In search of expansionary effects

lucia.cossaro@prometeia.com
Most of the net resources used by the new ‘Stability Law’  will be used to avoid the tax increases laid down by the deficit safeguard clauses, that is, to avoid asking households and companies to “put their hands in their pockets”. Without, however, putting any new cash in those pockets. Is this enough for this budget to be considered expansionary? We believe it is, up to a point. Meanwhile, available indicators suggest budget figures in line with their targets. This is not just thanks to the government.

20 January 2016

Italian research in the European programme Horizon 2020: seeds for the fourth industrial revolution?

leonardo.catani@prometeia.com,stefano.sparacca@prometeia.com
Improvement in the Italian position in the European programme providing funds for research and development projects. Substantial participation of private companies and strong focus on the issues related to the fourth industrial revolution.

15 January 2016

Listing Saudi Aramco: need for reforms or thirst for resources?

federico.ferrari@prometeia.com
With an estimated 266 billion barrels of oil reserves, the Saudi national oil company would be a giant among public companies: but what would induce Riyadh to sell off its prize asset, now that crude oil (and therefore the value of the asset) is at a ten-year low?

03 December 2015

The “popolari” banks make their day: a boost for profitability from efficiency gains

roberto.goracci@prometeia.com
The conversion of the “popolari” banks, the Italian co-operative banks, into joint stock companies could mark the beginning of a new season of bank consolidation, which might involve other credit institutions, as well as the popolari banks. This consolidation is expected to produce significant cost synergies, which, once fully realised, may bolster the income statements and the balance sheets of the new banking groups.

02 December 2015

Profits and lower loan impairments in the first nine months of 2015 for all Italian banking groups

massimiliano.coluccia@prometeia.com
Positive financial results in the first nine months of 2015 for the leading groups listed on the stock market. Aggregate profits more than double on an annual basis as loan impairments sharply decrease. Loans to customers broadly unchanged since the beginning of the year.

20 November 2015

Slowdown in emerging countries impacting recovery in Italian economy

gianluca.antonecchia@prometeia.com, monica.ferrari@prometeia.com
The crisis in emerging countries is slowing the recovery of the Italian economy. Even so, exporters to Russia and China are well-equipped to handle a drop in demand.

18 November 2015

Bank bonds at the dawn of the bail-in

roberto.goracci@prometeia.com
The wholesale bank funding market has opened up further, especially for covered bonds, instruments which have traditionally paid low yields. As the introduction of the bail-in nears, unsecured bonds are showing a few signs of increases in costs, which seems to have also slowed issues. However, the MREL is also waiting in the wings, which could somewhat require a different funding mix.

 
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