22 April 2016

Commodity price rise: One swallow does not a summer make

federico.ferrari@prometeia.com
It would be premature to view the March rebound in prices for raw materials as the prelude to an upward trend. They are actually destined to maintain a W-shaped curve, alternating increases and decreases for a large part of the year, within a scenario that presents numerous risk elements.

20 April 2016

Commodity, rebound of the Prometeia index in March (+1%)

stefano.sparacca@prometeia.com
Global supply is gradually adapting to the weakness of consumption on various markets. Machinery industry index increased by 2%

21 March 2016

Best places to live in your country. Internal migration in Italian and German regions

livia.simongini@prometeia.com
Italy and Germany are both affected by internal migration, but persistent one-way flows exacerbate regional divides and hence hamper inclusive growth.

17 March 2016

Greater prudence exercised by the FED due to fears associated with the risks posed to global growth and more restrictive financial conditions

lea.zicchino@prometeia.com
During the meeting held on 16 March, the Fed did not touch upon the rates, as expected,  but instead reviewed the profile expected for 2016 (and beyond) of 50 basis points as compared to the December projections (0.9 at the end of the year as opposed to 1.4), though with unchanged expectations on the core inflation and unemployment rates.

10 March 2016

The reform of the chamber system: defining the roles and autonomy for the institutional interlocutors of businesses on the territory

roberta.francescon@prometeia.com
Modernisation and rationalisation are the
principles behind the reform of the Public Administration in the last few
months, that also concerns the chamber system. After the regulatory
intervention that for the 2015-2017 three-year period reduces the annual fee
for enterprises, a Government decree is expected in the coming weeks. Aside
from resources, duties and functions of the new Chambers of commerce will be
redefined.

04 March 2016

Quand le bâtiment va, tout va? A positive 2015 for the European residential construction industry

luca.agolini@prometeia.com
Residential investment has positively contributed to growth in most European countries, with the significant exception of France. Prospects remain favourable, however, there is no shortage of risk factors.

02 March 2016

Chinese steel: a ticking time-bomb

federico.ferrari@prometeia.com
The steelworkers' demonstration in Brussels
requesting measures aimed at protecting the European steel industry turned the
spotlight on one of the most controversial topics connected to the economic
slowdown in China: the distortive behaviour of public industry whenever
domestic demand proves insufficient for ensuring a high level of utilisation of
the production capacity.

01 March 2016

BCCs: caught between economic crisis and bail-ins

massimiliano.coluccia@prometeia.com
Small-sized banks are facing new challenges posed not
only by the effects on the balance sheets produced by the extended economic
crisis, but also by the changes in the supervisory institutional set-up, by the
evolution of prudential regulations and lastly by the repercussions and
innovations of the resolution regime.

26 February 2016

Retail trade: searching for new business models

patrizia.dicicco@prometeia.com
Retail trade is undergoing a phase of discontinuity with the past, in a highly competitive context characterised by structural changes in consumer and buying behaviour. 

25 February 2016

Determinants of Fiscal Distress in Italian Municipalities

wildmer.gregori@prometeia.com*
How important are specific categories of local
spending in affecting municipalities' defaults? This study considers Italian
municipalities and examines which of the main indicators (debt repayments, current
budget balance, amount of residuals and personnel costs) affect their
probability of default. Results suggest that a 10pp rise in the share of loan
repayment over total spending leads to an average increase in default
probability of 2.6%–2.9%. No significant role is found for other budget
indicators

 
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