24 June 2016

To be, or not to be (part of the EU): geopolitical storm with moderate winds on foreign trade

claudio.colacurcio@prometeia.com, andrea.dossena@prometeia.com
The impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European project on international trade would probably be marginal compared to its political and strategic value, but not entirely negligible for Italian enterprises. The renegotiation of agreements and the devaluation of the British pound pose the greatest threats to the “Made in Italy” brand.

22 June 2016

High tension on the markets: to Brexit or... "too" Brexit?

In a few hours we shall have the outcome of the referendum on the permanence of the United Kingdom in Europe. The stress on global financial markets, that for several weeks now has been penalising the riskiest assets, is currently stellar. Last week's tragic episode has surely reduced the risk of the Brexit, but – according to our processed data – uncertainty on the markets is still high and the tension may continue also in coming months.

20 June 2016

Non-performing loans: the price gap and how to narrow it

Currently, an highly debated topic is the issue of the excessive accumulation of "non-performing loans" (NPLs) at system level and which mechanisms should be activated in order to reduce the weight of such loans on the balance sheets of Italian banks so as to realign them with the average of their European competitors, in terms of NPLs-to-equity ratio and of NPLs-to-customers loans ratio.

17 June 2016

Inflation and unemployment: the return of the Phillips curve?

wildmer.gregori@prometeia.com, stefania.tomasini@prometeia.com
Ever since the Sixties, the link between inflation and unemployment has continued to show strong volatility. Our study shows that in recent years, the relation between the two variables is gaining strength. With major implications for monetary and fiscal policy. 

16 June 2016

Commodities, new increase in Prometeia Index in May (+2%)

The rising cost of oil sustains the quotations of the main chemical industry inputs (+2%).

09 June 2016

Prometeia: a wealth of information from receipts and payments. Based on quality, naturally

andrea.berardis@prometeia.com, marco.brandolini@prometeia.com, paolo.malfagia@prometeia.com
Quality data are fundamental elements for innovation across all sectors, banking included. Crossing customers’ daily behavior with Prometeia’s forecasting models, in particular, will make building tailor-made commercial offers really possible.

06 June 2016

Trade between Italy and Latin America: cyclical difficulties and opportunities for growth

Latin America’s markets, with the partial exception of Brazil, remain largely unexplored by Italian companies. Now that these economies have overcome a period of economic weakness, gradual increase in per-capita income and the development of basic infrastructure could give greater momentum to our exports to the region.

31 May 2016

 Starting over from Teheran

The lifting of sanctions opens a new chapter in the commercial relations of Iran with the West. For Italy it is a case of going back to the successes of a not-too-distant past.

30 May 2016

Refugees: how and to what extent they affect the GDP of host countries

emilia.pezzolla@prometeia.com, michele.catalano@prometeia.com
The flow of immigrants and asylum-seekers in Europe as from 2015 has raised issues about the countries' capacity to manage the migration emergency. The Prometeia OLG model makes it possible to analyse the demographic, political and socio-economic repercussions of this phenomenon. Simulations with this model suggest that prospective effects on the growth of GDP depend largely on the speed of refugees' integration in the labour market and on their distribution across the countries.

23 May 2016

Slowdown of emerging countries: a guideline for identifying the countries that have scope for stimulating demand

The dwindling of a season of economic widespread growth across the “new markets” raises the issue – also, if not especially, for Made in Italy products - of the selection of the countries that are the focus of business strategies. A plausible discriminating factor is represented by the margins of economic policy for sustaining demand in the short term and influencing consumer spending power.

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