The impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European project on international trade would probably be marginal compared to its political and strategic value, but not entirely negligible for Italian enterprises. The renegotiation of agreements and the devaluation of the British pound pose the greatest threats to the “Made in Italy” brand.
In a few hours we shall have the outcome of the referendum on the permanence of the United Kingdom in Europe. The stress on global financial markets, that for several weeks now has been penalising the riskiest assets, is currently stellar. Last week's tragic episode has surely reduced the risk of the Brexit, but – according to our processed data – uncertainty on the markets is still high and the tension may continue also in coming months.
Currently, an highly debated topic is the issue of the excessive accumulation of "non-performing loans" (NPLs) at system level and which mechanisms should be activated in order to reduce the weight of such loans on the balance sheets of Italian banks so as to realign them with the average of their European competitors, in terms of NPLs-to-equity ratio and of NPLs-to-customers loans ratio.
Ever since the Sixties, the link between inflation and unemployment has continued to show strong volatility. Our study shows that in recent years, the relation between the two variables is gaining strength. With major implications for monetary and fiscal policy.
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Quality data are fundamental elements for innovation across all sectors, banking included. Crossing customers’ daily behavior with Prometeia’s forecasting models, in particular, will make building tailor-made commercial offers really possible.
Latin America’s markets, with the partial exception of Brazil, remain largely unexplored by Italian companies. Now that these economies have overcome a period of economic weakness, gradual increase in per-capita income and the development of basic infrastructure could give greater momentum to our exports to the region.
The flow of immigrants and asylum-seekers in Europe as from 2015 has raised issues about the countries' capacity to manage the migration emergency. The Prometeia OLG model makes it possible to analyse the demographic, political and socio-economic repercussions of this phenomenon. Simulations with this model suggest that prospective effects on the growth of GDP depend largely on the speed of refugees' integration in the labour market and on their distribution across the countries.
The dwindling of a season of economic widespread growth across the “new markets” raises the issue – also, if not especially, for Made in Italy products - of the selection of the countries that are the focus of business strategies. A plausible discriminating factor is represented by the margins of economic policy for sustaining demand in the short term and influencing consumer spending power.