Quarterly Economic Outlook March 2019

Bologna, Royal Hotel Carlton, 27/03/2019


Uncertainty about the global economic outlook is increasing. Leading indicators are showing signs of a US economic slowdown and China is struggling to maintain a high growth rate, while  the Euro area experienced sharp deceleration in 2018 and the prospects for the current year are uncertain. There are many elements that are difficult to quantify, including Brexit and the resolution of the US-China trade dispute. If these uncertainties achieve a positive resoltuion, the drop in economic activity will be more contained. 

Italy is in a particularly fragile position, due to the political uncertainty that characterised the second half of 2018 and the precariousness of its public finances. The deal struck with the EU Commission over the 2019 budget has limited the markets’ concerns over the soundness of the public accounts in the immediate future. However, the effect of the current slowdown combined with the weakness of some financing measures is introducing significant risks for the budget in the medium term and, if not addressed, could lead to new tensions.

As usual in the first report of the year, we tried to identify the underlying trends likely to characterise the economy in the medium term. This Prometeia Discussion Note addresses the medium term implications of external imbalances in the Euro area. We discussed these issues with Antonio Foglia (Gruppo Banca del Ceresio) and Stefano Micossi (Assonime).

Il Rapporto di Previsione Prometeia racchiude le stime macroeconomiche per l'Italia e il quadro internazionale a breve e medio termine.
Launch of the Quarterly Economic Outlook
The themes of the outlook and the related risks
Lorenzo Forni
Prometeia Associazione
The global economy 
Lorena Vincenzi
Prometeia Associazione
The Italian economy 
Stefania Tomasini
Prometeia Associazione
Coffee break
Financial and real imbalances within the Euro area
Lorenzo Forni
Prometeia Associazione
The other side of the coin: where do the persistent trade imbalances lie?
Antonio Foglia 
Gruppo Banca del Ceresio
Germany’s trade surpuls and the implications for Europe 
Stefano Micossi 
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