Quarterly Economic Outlook December 2018

Bologna, Royal Hotel Carlton, 18/12/2018


The world economy is slowing down and the reasons for caution are mounting. The United States mid-term election returned an even more polarised political landscape, while China seems to be increasingly struggling to manage its imbalances (excessive credit, reliance on exports in a context of uncertainty about international trade rules). At the same time, the EMU is decelerating more than expected and for the first time since 2015 Germany recorded a contraction in GDP in the third quarter. In this context, Italy continues to navigate in a situation of great uncertainty. 

As usual, in the first part of the morning we will present our Quarterly Economic Outlook. In the second part, we will talk about Europe in view of the coming elections. We’ll start by briefly presenting our Prometeia Discussion Note on immigration in Europe. Next, Alberto Alesina (Harvard University) will present a recent research on perceptions vs. facts on immigration. Jean Pisani-Ferry (European University Institute) will talk about the future of the Eurozone, and finally Erik Jones (SAIS, Johns Hopkins University) will comment on the next European elections.

Quarterly Economic Outlook December 2018
Presentation of the Quarterly Economic Outlook
Outlook and risks 
Lorenzo Forni
Prometeia Associazione
The global economy 
Lorena Vincenzi
Prometeia Associazione
The Italian economy
Stefania Tomasini
Prometeia Associazione
Coffee break
Towards the European elections
Opening remarks 
Lorenzo Forni
Prometeia Associazione
Immigrants in Europe: perceptions vs. facts
Alberto Alesina
Harvard University
France/Germany/Italy: The trilemma of Eurozone reform? 
Jean Pisani-Ferry
European University Institute
Towards the European elections
Erik Jones
SAIS, Johns Hopkins University
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