Prometeia's Quarterly Economic Outlook encloses short-term and medium-term macroeconomic estimates for Italy and the international economy.

Quarterly Economic Outlook - September 2017

Bologna, Royal Hotel Carlton, 29/09/2017


Outlook presentation (this session is reserved to associates only)

In a context of global expansion (still characterised by elements of deep uncertainty, in particular related to North Korea’s nuclear programme), Europe’s growth surge is surprising to the upside. Although it is above its potential, inflation and wage growth are still weak. The ECB has not announced any changes to its QE programme yet, which consists of asset purchases for €60 billion per month until December 2017. In the baseline scenario of our July 2017 Report, we indicated a possible tapering in the first half of 2018 and the end of asset purchases in June 2018. However, also due to the strengthening of the euro, expectations seem like pushing the end of QE back even further. Core inflation in the EMU is still contained, but its dynamic is very different among the main Euro area countries (more lively in Germany and Spain, weaker in France and Italy), indicating their different position in the economic cycle. To understand the most likely scenarios and the potential impacts on the financial system and European economy, one needs to consider the conjuncture of the main Member States as well as a wide range of economic indicators. At the presentation of the September 2017 Economic Outlook we will analyse these issues in depth.

Focus: Poverty and minimum income (public session)

In the second part of the morning, we will deal with poverty. In Europe the available poverty indicators have generally worsened since 2008 and the slower pace of the Italian recovery could be related to the worsening of income distribution. Italy has recently introduced the Inclusion Income programme (Reddito di Inclusione, REI) in an attempt to find a solution to these problems. Is REI the most suitable measure? Will it be able to dent poverty? Will it have an impact on aggregate growth? We will address these questions with Stefano Toso (University of Bologna and author of the book “Reddito di cittadinanza o reddito minimo?”, Il Mulino, 2016) and Elena Granaglia (Università Roma Tre, and author of the book “Il Reddito di base”, Ediesse 2016).

Outlook presentation
(this session is reserved to associates only)
Executive summary
Lorenzo Forni
Prometeia Associazione
The global economy
Lorena Vincenzi
Prometeia Associazione
Stefania Tomasini
Prometeia Associazione
Coffee Break
Focus: Poverty and minimum income
(public session)

Lorenzo Forni
Prometeia Associazione
Elena Giarda
Prometeia Associazione
Stefano Toso
Università di Bologna
Elena Granaglia
Università Roma Tre
Open discussion

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