1. To be, or not to be (part of the EU): geopolitical storm with moderate winds on foreign trade

    claudio.colacurcio@prometeia.com, andrea.dossena@prometeia.com
    The impact of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European project on international trade would probably be marginal compared to its political and strategic value, but not entirely negligible for Italian enterprises. The renegotiation of agreements and the devaluation of the British pound pose the greatest threats to the “Made in Italy” brand.


Prometeia Brief


GDP growth in 2016q1 likely slightly higher than previously expected, but we are not revising our forecast for 2016 and 2017. Inflation was negative in April for 3rd month in a row, highlighting resurgent deflation risks

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